Observations, Modelling, Statistics and Impacts of Extremes in a Changing Climate

Room: Hemerycksalen
Time: 14.00- 15.30

Session chairs: Prof. Gabriele Messori (Uppsala University), Dr. Petter Lind (SMHI), Dr. Wenxin Zhang (Lund University).

Extreme events are intrinsic to the Earth’s weather and climate, and their characteristics and occurrence are modulated by natural climate variability on multiple temporal and spatial scales. In recent decades, human-driven climate change has emerged as an additional and increasingly important driver of changes in extremes. This session is dedicated to research aiming to understand the physical mechanisms, drivers and implications of past, present and future weather and climate extremes and their variability in space and time. We invite discussions on weather and climate modelling, observations and statistical methods, paleoclimate science, and on climate impacts of extremes on natural and socioeconomic systems (biodiversity, ecosystem services, economics and governance etc.).

14.00 Welcome Gabriele Messori, Petter Lind and Wenxin Zhang

  • Dr. Magnus Hieronymus (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) – A novel machine learning based bias correction method applied to sea level in an ensemble of downscaled climate projections
  • Dr. Martin Skoglund (Stockholm University, Bolin) – Agrometeorological relationships in Early Modern Scandinavia
  • Prof. Anna Rutgersson (Uppsala University) – Potential response of the Baltic Sea Carbon Cycle to Extreme Events
  • Dr. Jonas Olsson (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) – A zoomed-in analysis of future wet and dry spells in southern Sweden
  • Siri Westerblom (Uppsala University) – Projected changes in “sea-effect” snowfall in a future warmer climate over the Swedish Baltic sea region – results from a convection-permitting climate model
  • Dr. Marlon Vieira Passos (Stockholm Environment Institute) – Mapping heat waves, floods, and droughts in Sweden using climate indices
  • Dr. Pasha Karami (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) – Detection of extreme sea level events using climate model data: the case of the Swedish west coast